In mid-January, the dollar against the hryvnia in different segments of the foreign exchange market has changed in different ways. On the interbank market, the dollar barely rose, while in other market segments it fell moderately by 0.2-0.8%. Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at Alpari, said what awaits the hryvnia in the near future.
Thus, since last Monday, the official US dollar exchange rate set by the NBU (National Bank of Ukraine) has decreased from UAH 28.28 to UAH 28.05 (-0.8%). Demand supply of the dollar on the interbank market, according to UkrDilling (Ukrainian financial newspaper), during the same period increased from 28.14 / 28.16 to 28.15 / 28.17 (+ 0.04%). The average buying / selling rates of the cash dollar in banks for the week decreased from 28.13 / 28.38 to 28.07 / 28.32 (-0.2%). The spread between the average sale and the average purchase remained at 0.9%.
According to the forecasts of the world agency Reuters, the dollar exchange rate for the first three months of the year will fall from 28.4 to 27.6 hryvnias, overcoming the mark of 28 hryvnias. The market has positive expectations from cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In December, Ukraine passed an anti-corruption law to increase its chances of obtaining additional loans from the IMF under the $ 5 billion agreement. bonds, “- said in a monthly survey Reuters. “The Ukrainian hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021 due to the inflow of foreign currency from exports and the resumption of interest of foreign portfolio investors in Ukrainian bonds”, – said in a monthly survey Reuters.
This week we do not expect significant changes in the dollar against the hryvnia. The dollar can be traded on the interbank market in a week near UAH 28.2, and the cash dollar in banks can be traded around UAH 28.0/28.3.
Translated by Yevheniia Ivanova