The head of the Forex Club analysis department, Andrii Shevchyshyn, gave his short-term forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate and what will affect its in the coming days.
On Wednesday, January 13, the UAH rate is 28 hryvnias per dollar. The market retains a significant advantage for currency sellers, which leads to a substantial strengthening of hryvnias. Importers on the market are passive because of quarantine. Speculators are playing on expectations of the hryvnia strengthening. At the same time, non-residents play an important role, which is oriented towards the purchase of domestic government bonds. Thus, the day before the Ministry of Finance on the placement of State bonds attracted UAH 8,9 billion.
The news also called the start of the IMF mission’s work in Ukraine an important factor in supporting the hryvnia. This year, Ukraine should transfer to the Fund about $1.6 billion worth of scheduled payments. Of this, $1.36 billion will be used to pay off the principal amount of debt, and $260 million – on interest. Taking into account payments on the debt of private, as well as inter-company debt, the total volume of payments by Ukraine in favor of non-residents in 2021 will amount to about $15.5 billion.
Probably, the national currency has entered a stage of rather active growth and may soon strengthen below the psychological mark of UAH 28 per dollar. The pace and range of strengthening will depend on the National Bank, which remained the only strong buyer on the market, where all other participants are waiting for its interference with a purchase to understand the new level of trading.
Translated by Maksym Valko
