The average cost of petrol in the country continues to grow. What is the reason and what to expect next, explained UA-Times TeleTrade analyst Sergei Rodler.
The main reason is the resumption of oil prices, which continue to be close to the maximum levels since February 2020. In recent days, the oil market has seen a correction, but even with this in mind, the cost of a barrel of Brent exceeds the marks of the beginning of the year by almost 10%.
In the near future, the growth of quotations may slow down against the background of maintaining a high incidence of coronaviruses and the threat of new lockdowns. In addition, the International Energy Agency recently revised its forecasts for growth in oil demand in 2021 for the worse. It will be recalled that oil prices have risen mainly due to declining activity of major exporters and hopes for increased demand, which is not recovering as fast as previously expected.
However, the cost of gasoline in Ukraine is likely to continue to rise. This is due to the fact that from the moment of purchase of raw materials on the market it takes about 3-4 weeks before the fuel reaches the end points of sales, so that the retail reacts to market changes with a delay. Let’s not forget about the weakness of the hryvnia, whose exchange rate continues to be close to the maximum levels reached at the end of last year, which means that importers continue to spend more in hryvnia equivalent to buy raw materials.
We expect the cost of A-95 near UAH 25.37 per liter.
Translation: Ann Loboda