The website of the National Bank publishes data from another poll of entrepreneurs, on the basis of which the so-called Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is calculated. According to its data, under the conditions of pandemic and quarantine, the businesscontinues to be pessimistic about the results of its economic growth despite a slight moderation of estimates.
According to the monthly accounts of the National Bank, in December 2020 PMI was 45.5 against 43.4 in November. From March of the current year, the expectations of enterprises are below the equilibrium value (50 points). According to the report, the index value at level 50 is neutral. Expectations are positive if the value of the index exceeds the neutral level.
The lowest estimates remain in housing construction enterprises, where expectations are determined by the seasonal decline in economic activity and reducing investment demand. Thus, the sector index in December was 39.1 against 35.0 in November.
Industrial enterprises’ assessments continued to decline: the sector index fell to 44.6 in December from 46.1 in November. Industrialists have turned up expectations of prices increase in base materials and goods and expect a decrease in new export orders for outputs. At the same time, estimates of the volume of manufactured products improved a bit.
Instead, trade enterprises maintain the best estimates of their own results and prospects among other sectors of the economy: in December, the sector index was 48.5 (46.7 in November). After the lifting of the weekend quarantine, respondents improved their expectations regarding the increase in turnover and the volume of purchases of goods for sale. The same applies to the services sector, whose representatives improved their estimates from 40.1 in November to 45.1. In particular, respondents expected an increase in the volume of services provided, new orders and services in the period before the holidays.
Enterprises in all sectors predict an increase in prices for their own goods / services against the background of rising prices for base materials and prices of suppliers, as well as set to make the redundant.
Poll criteria
The monthly poll of enterprises by specialists of the National Bank was conducted from December 3 to December 23, 2020. 172 companies took part in the poll. Among the surveyed enterprises, 32.6% – industrial companies, 34.3% – services, 29.1% – trade, 4.1% – construction. 34.9% – respondents – large enterprises, 23.8% – medium, 41.3% – small. 39.0% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.9% – carry out only export operations, 18.0% – only import operations, 33.1% – do not carry out foreign economic operations.
The Monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a tool for operational assessment and tracking of economic development trends. The index is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian enterprises in the real sector of the economy. Monthly indices of business activity expectations based on the answers of the respondents are calculated – sectoral (for each sector of the economy) and composite, which characterizes the economic development of the country for the month.
The results of the next survey (for January) will be published on the first working day of February 2021.
Read also “National Economic Strategy 2030’ through the eyes of experts”
Translated by Ilona Veretelnyk
